Portfolio Manager comment Coeli Global Small Cap Select March 2023

Coeli Global Small Cap Select’s performance was -3.91% in March, beating our benchmark by 0.59 percentage points. March was weaker for small cap stocks but towards the end of the month, we saw a distinct pickup in interest for this asset class.

The stocks that performed the best during March were Mortgage Advice Bureau, Volution Group, and Fortnox. The weakest performers in the month were Titan Machinery, Clearfield, and El.En. SPA.

We find it especially pleasing to have two British companies among the top performers this month, demonstrating the breadth of our holdings. Despite the tough times for the UK housing market right now, Mortgage Advice Bureau reported growth in turnover of 4% y/y, an 8% increase in the number of advisors, and expanded its market share to 6.8%. Volution also reported good numbers, with turnover growing by 8.5% over the past six months, a majority of this being organic growth. Soon, a new reporting season will start, and it will be exciting to follow our companies’ developments. One that will be particularly good to keep an eye on is March’s worst performer: Clearfield. Given that it has guided double-digit growth in 2023, this report has the potential to light a fire under the stock.

Key market events and trends (what has influenced performance most?)

In the middle of March, the Fed raised the Fed Funds target rate by 0.25 percentage points. Considering that the rate of inflation is easing, the Fed may now have reached the end of its interest rate hikes. During March, the US two- and 10-year rates have dropped quite a bit, which is the bond market’s way of showing that it also believes the Fed is done with or approaching the end of the hikes. Those of you who have read previous months’ newsletters know that interest rates influence share prices. Falling rates are now supporting valuations and share prices, which leaves us anticipating a good stock market this year.

During the month, there has been considerable unease in the European and US banking sectors that has even affected untroubled banks. Swiss bank Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS as its existing owners were unable to inject more capital. In the US, those facing difficulties included Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. The only bank in the small cap fund is Nordnet Bank, and we are not concerned regarding its assets. Moreover, Sweden’s Finansinspektionen and its foreign counterparts have been working for a decade to strengthen the entire banking sector and ensure it can better handle crises.

Portfolio changes

During the month, we sold three companies and bought three new ones. We sold Finland’s Musti and Alarm.com and Special Situations stock Titan Machinery, both from the US. Our new companies are Medpace from the US, Belgium’s Melexis, and Soitec from France.

Medpace is a CRO company that conducts clinical tests in phases I-IV for a number of drug companies. Melexis designs sensors for electric cars and motorbikes, industry and healthcare, among other uses. One thing we especially like about Melexis is its exposure to electric vehicles, which we believe will see further increases in sales in the coming years. Soitec operates in the semiconductor sector, producing innovative materials for semiconductor companies. It also produces semiconductor materials with silicon carbide that, when used in electric cars, for example, offer a greater range than conventional semiconductor materials.

The fund’s positioning—our market expectations

We are heading into Q1 reporting season with a portfolio offering good expected earnings growth and with low indebtedness. We believe the economy is on the right track and set to gradually improve. Improved macro data and solid company reports should prove a good recipe for generating returns in the coming quarter. As of late February/early March, we held a thrilling portfolio of 36 small caps from around the world that are surpassing market growth.

News

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